Michael Hudson explains the reality of debt peonage.
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We are not in a cycle but the end of an era. The old world of debt pyramiding to a fraudulent degree cannot be restored, despite the repeal Glass-Steagall Act in 1999 that unleashed financial conflicts of interest when the Clinton Administration backed Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and financial lobbyist Greenspan in claiming that financial markets would be self-regulating and law-abiding. The real estate bubble was made possible by the unique degree to which America’s population emerged from World War II relatively debt free. Each recovery has taken off from a higher debt level. This something like trying to drive a car with the brakes pressed tighter and tighter to the floor each time there is a stoplight (recession). We have now reached the debt limit, and the economy is stuck. The class war is back in business, with a vengeance. Instead of it being the familiar old class war between industrial employers and their work force, this one reverts to the old pre-industrial class war of creditors versus debtors. Its guiding principle is “Big Fish Eat Little Fish,” mainly by the debt dynamic that crowds out the promised economy of free choice. This is being portrayed as a post-industrial economy, but it is a much older story. No economy in history ever has been able to pay off its debts. That is the essence of the “magic of compound interest.” Debts grow inexorably, making creditors rich but impoverishing the economy in the process, thereby destroying its ability to pay. Recognizing this financial dynamic most societies have chosen the logical response. From Sumer in the third millennium BC and Babylonia the second millennium through Greece and Rome in the first millennium BC, and then from feudal Europe to the Inter-Ally war debts and reparations tangle that wrecked international finance after World War I, the response has been to bring debts back within the ability to pay.
This can be done only by wiping out debts that cannot be paid. The alternative is debt peonage. Throughout most of history, countries have found again and again that bankruptcy – wiping out the debts – is the way to free economies. The idea is to free them from a situation where the economic surplus is diverted away from new tangible investment to pay bankers. The classical idea of free markets is to avoid privatizing monopolies, such as the unique privilege of commercial bankers to create bank-credit and charge interest on it.
Current proposals would replace bad debts that are not publicly insured (except by an “implicit” guarantee that relevant legislators have bought into) with new debts, and new suckers are to be left holding the bag. Bahrainis and Saudis in particular are being courted.
But most of all, there is a public campaign being waged by the FIRE sector (Finance, Insurance and Real Estate) to convince the American public that, in the infamous words of Margaret Thatcher, TINA, “there is no alternative.” (See for instance the Wall Street Journal’s excellent coverage of the FNMA/mortgage crisis on July 11, 2002, p. A12.) When one hears this, it means that political censorship is being mobilized to flood the popular media with the intellectual equivalent of sterile fruit flies being released to stop the spread of a threat. All one hears is a barrage of claims that the government must preserve the financial fictions of FNMA and Freddie Mac in order to “save the market.”
But what is “the market” that is to be “saved”? To Wall Street and its Congressional advocates, it is the mass of bad debts growing at compound “magic” rates of interest, beyond the ability of debtors to pay. If the debtors cannot pay, then the Government – “taxpayers” are to pick up the check to Wall Street. Meanwhile, more tax breaks are to be given to leave the finance, insurance and real estate sectors with enough money to “earn back” their losses, by extracting yet more rent and interest from the industrial economy’s consumers and wage-earners.
The usual hypocrisy is being brought to bear claiming that all this is necessary to “save the middle class,” even as what is being saved are its debts, not its assets. Something must give – and the upper 10 percent of the population wants to make sure that it is not its own economic position, but that of the bottom 90 percent. The “way of life” that is being saved is not that of home ownership, but debt peonage to support the concentration of wealth at the top of the economic pyramid.
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He also offers a solution that will never be implemented given that it doesn’t involve the uber-wealthy realizing the gains while everyone else takes the risks.
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Shareholders of FNMA and Freddie Mac probably will be wiped out, as were S&L shareholders in the bailout of S&L depositors in the 1980s. There’s a simple way to save FNMA’s and Freddie’s public functions, if they indeed are deemed necessary to keep supporting the debt market. This can be done without bailing out the speculators who bought the mortgages it packaged.
First of all, not all the mortgages that these two agencies have bought or guaranteed are junk. Most are genuine and are being paid. The poor are honest, after all, and think that they should pay as a matter of honor even if it is not in their economic interest to do so when their homes fall into negative equity. Let these mortgages continue to back the existing FNMA and Freddie Mac bonds to the degree that they actually receive mortgage debt service. If there is a shortfall, let bondholders take the usual haircut that is supposed to go hand in hand with risk. That is why these mortgages had such high rates of interest, after all. The loss would be proportional to the financial and real estate fraud they have enabled. This is the law for all other bondholders when their investments go south. Why make an exception for participants in the real estate bubble?
The rule caveat emptor should apply to bankers and investors here. They have bought a product – a flow of income that they either believed or pretended could be paid. Any student taught the mathematics of compound interest knows that in the end no economy’s debts can be paid. So this should be a special financial caveat.
To keep their activities current, let Fannie and Freddie issue a new series of bonds – the “we won’t fake it anymore” series. They would be based on a new honesty based on more realistic appraisals of the affordability of housing, which they were supposed to be promoting all along. These steps would not cause a collapse.
But before stepping up to save FNMA and Freddie Mac, we might ask whether it would be a tragedy for their debt guarantees to cease. Wall Street has given politicians a cover story that to support FNMA and Freddie on the pretense that its packaging and reselling mortgages in big “tranches” provides liquidity. Its defenders claimed to be “modernizing” the real estate mortgage market by creating uniform standards and homogeneous packages. But these packages were increasingly tainted with junk, putting floor sweepings of ARMs with no-down-payment and NINJA (no income, no job) loans into financial sausages.
What Fannie and Freddie did was to provide a vast new source of demand for mortgages. Their role has been to extend the market for mortgage debt, creating opportunities to make money financially in an environment of asset-price inflation – the Bubble Economy. The effect was to push up housing prices. This has been the great American game for a century. And it has turned increasingly to outside investors (including gullible German banks which were the first to go bust by trusting the U.S. junk mortgage market), swelling the supply of loanable funds that bid up property prices.
Prior to FNMA and Freddie Mac, banks that issued mortgages held onto them, because there were no outside blind buyers. This was the pre-fraud era. It is now looking like a Golden Age. Housing prices were lower, and buyers did not have to go so deeply into debt to purchase homes. But the Senate and Congress – at least the Democrats – are urging the FHA and other government agencies to prop up the mortgage market by issuing zero-down-payment loans and other subsidies. The immediate aim is not to help homeowners – who indeed will have to pay more if the housing market re-inflates. Each new economic crisis adds a few new words to the English language. This time we get “reflate.” Others include NYU Prof. Roubini’s “stagdeflation” for a combination of debt deflation of incomes and price inflation for commodities as the dollar sinks in response to the balance-of-payments deficit resulting largely from the war in Iraq. But that is another story. Today’s story is about how Congress is aiming to bail out the banks that have bought or packaged these junk mortgages, about how needless this bailout is, and about how much simpler and more fair to just write off the bad debts.
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